Det är nästan omöjligt att resultatet i det kommande valet 10 november skiljer så pass mycket från det förra att det löser den nuvarande blockeringen. Socialistpartiet PSOE liksom Partido Popular väntas öka sina mandat något, men högern kommer fortfarande inte att kunna styra tillsammans. Ej heller kommer socialistpartiet att kunna förlita sig enbart på sina egna platser. Det största frågetecknet är hur många väljare som i rent missnöje stannar hemma, av vilka många tros vara vänsteranhängare.
Om Spanien inte ska tvingas hålla val var sjätte månad i all evighet krävs att minst en och helst flera av de nuvarande politiska ledarna byts ut. Problemet grundar sig nämligen till största delen i ren personkemi. Främst handlar det om triangeln Sánchez-Iglesias-Rivera. Socialistledaren Pedro Sánchez hade blivit omvald vid det här laget om han haft förmågan att nå ett avtal med antingen Pablo Iglesias och Unidas Podemos, eller med Albert Riveras Ciudadanos. De tre tål dock inte varandra. Som så ofta när det handlar om personkemi är anledningen oklar. I fallet Sánchez-Rivera har vi den enorma paradoxen att de två undertecknade ett koalitionsavtal våren 2016 som inte tjänade till någonting, då de saknade tillräckliga mandat, men när de nu tillsammans skulle ha haft egen majoritet var detta inte på tal.
Ingen av dem kommer att lämna plats för någon annan partiledare före valet. Det enda sättet på vilket Spanien ska kunna erhålla en regering efter den 10 november är därför att resultatet tvingar minst en av dem att avgå. Det lär knappast bli Sánchez, då PSOE med all säkerhet kommer att vinna på nytt. Valet står sålunda mellan Iglesias och Rivera. Eller båda två…
P.S. Det finns eventuellt en ”tredje väg”, nu när det spekuleras om att Podemos-avhopparen Íñigo Errejón eventuellt ställer upp i valet med ett nytt parti. Han menas vara mer benägen att nå en överenskommelse med PSOE, men det är högst oklart både om han ställer upp och om det nya vänsterpartiet i det fallet verkligen skulle erhålla en representation som kan fälla avgörandet.
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| Blogg: Spanien idag |
Besvikelsen över de misslyckade regeringsförhandlingarna är störst bland vänsteranhängarna och risken är stor att många avstår från att rösta 10 november. Foto: La Moncloa – Gobierno de España
Dela:
Omgiv räcker inte
Publicerad 2019-09-23 06:59BLOGG: SPANIEN IDAG Så blir det alltså nyval igen. Precis som 2016 tvingas den spanska väljarkåren åter till valurnorna, efter att de politiska ledarna varit oförmögna att förvalta resultatet i det ordinarie valet och bilda regering. Irritationen är enorm och det verkar uppenbart att en enbart en ”omgiv” inte kommer att räcka för att lösa situationen.
|
Mats Björkman Sydkusten |
| Den mest kompletta informationen om Spanien, varje dag i din e-postlåda. Prenumerera på SK Premium! |
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